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Reducing German Soy Imports? Feasibility, Requirements, Consequences - subproject 1 (SOJA)
Project
Project code: 28N1800028
Contract period: 01.01.2019
- 31.12.2021
Budget: 202,455 Euro
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
In the political discussion about German livestock farming, the question is repeatedly raised whether it is not possible and environmentally desirable to reduce imports of soy and replace them with local protein feeds. The motives for such a request are diverse. Some discussants are concerned with protection of the Brazilian rainforest. Others see the substitution of imports as an opportunity to reduce the cultivation and consumption of genetically modified plants. In addition to the political plans, there are also efforts by the food industry and food retailers to differentiate products by offering GMO-free supply chains and/or regional raw material origins and thus generate additional margins. Against this background, the study outlined here is intended to provide answers to the following questions: (1) Which agronomic possibilities exist to substitute soy imports from non-EU countries by increased domestic/European production of vegetable protein and under which conditions can these potentials be realised? (2) To what extent could existing or potential future political programmes play a role here? (3) How will the market-driven demand for GMO-free and/or domestic protein animal feed develop, i.e. how much redirection in the procurement of raw materials exists due to market-based processes? (4) Which market and trade effects result from such a substitution strategy and how are the probable effects on global land consumption or on economic pressure to be taken into account? The project is divided into five work packages, which are to be executed within a period of 36 months. In work package A, a detailed market overview for protein animal feed is given by the evaluation of statistics and expert interviews. In work package B, official statistics, expert discussions and web analyses are used to estimate the future market-driven demand for GMO-free or regionally produced protein animal feed in Germany. Work Package C contains the economic analysis and development of policy measures for the promotion of protein feed cultivation in Germany and the EU. Work package D deals with the agronomic and economic potentials of the EU production of protein animal feed. For this purpose, the agri benchmark method is used to survey typical farms. In work package E the simulation of trade effects and land use changes is carried out which are connected with the measures derived in the previous work packages. The global (agricultural) trade model MAGNET is applied for the analysis.
Section overview
Subjects
- Animal health
- Organic Farming
