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Imprint
Modelling Structural Change and Income Development in the Dairy Sector in NRW
Project
Project code: REFORDAT-72, AZ II-1-F 41-2010.01
Contract period: 01.07.2010
- 30.06.2012
Budget: 73,300 Euro
Purpose of research: Applied research
In the course of the CAP reform the dairy quota system has been extended until 2014/2015. However, after the “health check” of the year 2008 one can assume that the quota system will come to an end in 2015. To prepare for this date the quota has been expanded by 2 % in 2008/2009 and shall be further increased by 1 % in the years 2009/2010 and 2013/2014. In view of the impending termination of the quota system, quota prices have already declined significantly. For the dairy farms the abolition of the quota system means on one hand that the present production constraint will be released so the farms can grow without any requirement to purchase additional quota. On the other hand, the free market ac- cess exposes the dairy farms to the free play of market forces which causes a so far unknown price uncertainty. Under these circumstances, the future regional de- velopment of the dairy sector in NRW largely depends on the farmers’ behaviour, since the dairy farmers’ aggregate production decisions notably influence the de- velopment of producer prices. Against this background, the proposed research project aims at analysing possible scenarios of regional and structural developments of the dairy sector, including the resulting income effects. The research will be based on a dynamic modelling approach. The intended research results will provide hints regarding policy re- quirements as well as the design of agricultural policy measures.
Section overview
Subjects
- Business administration
