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Economic assessment and adoption potential of new technologies in horticulture (WeGa - Product and production safety of highly intense plant production - work package 4.4)
Project
Project code: TI-BW-08-PID1488
Contract period: 01.11.2011
- 31.07.2015
Purpose of research: Inventory & Assessment
In research, future-oriented, technological approaches are being pursued to increase the security of horticultural production systems and products. We ask whether such technologies will actually be implemented into the horticultural production systems. Technical innovations will only be introduced in horticultural plants if they are profitable. In addition, the risk of such innovations is of significant importance. Therefore, our project examines the profitability and the economic risk of investment in selected new technologies that are being developed by WeGa network partners. We model production for cauliflower and broccoli in Germany as typical production systems. This allows an analysis of cost and profitability of production. On this basis, we simulate the introduction of new technologies to determine their profitability and business risk. To gather the data to describe the currently used production systems, we conducted a survey with farm managers in the major growing regions of Germany: Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein. We describe the new technologies and their impact on the production systems on basis of research results and expert estimates. For the analysis, we develop a stochastic simulation model based on the Monte Carlo method. The model allows us to determine the profitability of investments by showing distributions for the most important parameters influencing the profitability. The economic risk of the investment is explicitly taken into account using stochastic simulations. As a reference, we use the technology currently used in Germany. Due to the feedback with the WeGa network partners, it is possible to promote innovations according to economic criteria.
Section overview
Subjects
- Vegetable Gardening
- Business administration